Nate Silver is a box score genius. Nate Silver can call states, counties and wards like no other. But can Nate predict the winner of the World Cup?
Some of our global readers may find Nate Silver’s statistical offerings on “soccer” other worldly. Who is this four eyed American running the numbers on our game, I hear some of you dismissively spit. But can it be true one can only understand football if one starts drinking about eleven in the morning in a backstreet pub or bar in the vicinity of some corrugated contraption called a football ground. There has to be a middle ground. Nate Silver deserves the utmost respect. But you know among the remnants of ale, chips, pies and gravy that your guts can tell you something Nate’s numbers cannot.
Nate has promised to delve into football realm for some time. His arrival is most welcome. FIFA has improved its ranking system. FIFA’s seeds were the deserving form teams (though Silver has a minor objection preferring Portugal over Italy.) Still, Silver’s Soccer Power Index is the Snow Leopard of upgrades. It is on paper at least, the best ranking of international football.
But can the running of fun football statistics really predict winners with such scientific certitude. How can it, for example, adjust for the emergence of a Uruguayan midfield prodigy, the determination African Disapora players from random places like Honduras to perform at that higher level, or the late call up of that left back capable of both the beautiful football and the most horrendous crimes ever witnessed on a football field, where one No.3’s mis-kick can find the back of the net or break Beckham’s leg in three places, not to mention all the other shenanigans?
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