Silver Underestimates Slovakia

David Patrick Lane — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 12:56:50 +0000

Nate Silver is a box score genius. Nate Silver can call states, counties and wards like no other. But can Nate predict the winner of the World Cup?

Some of our global readers may find Nate Silver’s statistical offerings on “soccer” other worldly. Who is this four eyed American running the numbers on our game, I hear some of you dismissively spit. But can it be true one can only understand football if one starts drinking about eleven in the morning in a backstreet pub or bar in the vicinity of some corrugated contraption called a football ground. There has to be a middle ground. Nate Silver deserves the utmost respect. But you know among the remnants of ale, chips, pies and gravy that your guts can tell you something Nate’s numbers cannot.

Nate has promised to delve into football realm for some time. His arrival is most welcome. FIFA has improved its ranking system. FIFA’s seeds were the deserving form teams (though Silver has a minor objection preferring Portugal over Italy.) Still, Silver’s Soccer Power Index is the Snow Leopard of upgrades. It is on paper at least, the best ranking of international football.

But can the running of fun football statistics really predict winners with such scientific certitude. How can it, for example, adjust for the emergence of a Uruguayan midfield prodigy, the determination African Disapora players from random places like Honduras to perform at that higher level, or the late call up of that left back capable of both the beautiful football and the most horrendous crimes ever witnessed on a football field, where one No.3’s mis-kick can find the back of the net or break Beckham’s leg in three places, not to mention all the other shenanigans?

As noted here yesterday, random lady luck has smiled on Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. Each has a one in three chance of being grouped with South Africa, arguably the weakest host in the tournament’s history, though Switzerland, Spain and the USA have good cases for not being up to scratch when it was their turn.

Silver’s Theirry Henry is luck. Such luck will continue through today’s draw. Three nations will draw New Zealand. Then from that starting point Nate will run his regressions and look for his normal distributions and soon enough he will predict game and group winners and the ultimate winners of the World Cup. You would be wise to follow his word at the wide wonderful world of online turf accountants and soccer spreaders.

But a word of caution. If Nate nurtures the idea solely based on the numbers that England’s dream draw would include Algeria and Slovakia, then my guts filled with lashings of lham lhalou and lager humbly suggest he expand his data set.

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Pot Observations

David Patrick Lane — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 17:38:38 +0000

TEN POT OBSERVATIONS.

1. FIFA got the seedings right. Pot 1 seeds earned their ranking. France did not. France’s final appearance was four years ago.

2. Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay have come out of the pot alignment better than most. Each of the smaller South American nations will avoid the big five African qualifiers in the 1st Round.

3. Argentina and Brazil cannot avoid the African qualifiers from Pot 3. The seeds for two potential Groups of Death have now been sown. Has FIFA put Brazil at risk for an early bath?

4. The most frightening Group of Death would be: Brazil, Mexico, Côte d’Ivoire and Portugal.

5. The dark horse of Pot 2 is Honduras.

6. The tournament’s top scorer will probably find his country drawn against New Zealand in the 1st Round.

7. Slovenia will not be the dark horse of Pot 4. Slovakia might be.

8. South Africa need the luck of the draw more than most. The hosts will hope to be grouped with both New Zealand and Slovenia. So will every other team from Pots 1 and 3, for that matter.

9. Algeria could draw both France and Germany. The Desert Foxes will appreciate the luck of being thrown into that particular garlic and beer feed chicken coop.

10. Italy could renew some old acquaintances. North Korea can beat Italy, again. And Chile can beat Italy up, again.

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FOOTBALL IS COMING HOME » Slovakia

Silver Underestimates Slovakia

Pot Observations